What Should the Houston Rockets do with Jalen Green?

Highlights

• Jalen Green’s recent performance against the Suns highlighted his inconsistency.
• Despite high expectations, Green’s stats this season have been abysmal.
• The Houston Rockets face tough decisions with Green, and could possibly trade or bench him.

In the first half against the Phoenix Suns on Leap Day, Thursday, February 29, Jalen Green showed the world why the Houston Rockets selected him with the second-overall pick in 2021. He exhibited both the elite athleticism and scoring touch that made him such a coveted prospect coming out of the G-League Ignite.

By intermission, the third-year guard had racked up 21 points on 7-14 shooting, including 5-9 from deep, to go along with two steals.

Unfortunately for Green, this kind of performance has been nearly as rare as Leap Day for him this season. Not only has he been wildly inconsistent on a game-to-game basis this year, but his impact has also fluctuated wildly within the same contest on multiple occasions. In the second half against the Suns, Green’s hot hand went ice cold.

In the third period, he went just 3-9 from the floor. To close the game, he tallied five points on 1-4 shooting in the fourth. While Green’s scoring kept Houston within arm’s reach of the reigning champions, he also shot them out of the game in the second half. Ultimately, he finished with 34 points on an abysmal 10-27 shooting, going just 3-10 inside the 3-point arc. This outing was a perfect encapsulation of the Rockets’ conundrum with Jalen Green.

Jalen Green has severely disappointed this year

2023-24 statistics: 17.6 PPG, 4.8 RPG, 3.4 APG, 0.7 SPG, 2.2 TPG, 40.6 FG%, 30.8 3FG%

There’s no sugar-coating it. Not only has Green been one of the worst high-volume shooters in the league this year, he’s competing for the title of worst starter in the NBA, and he could very well be leading the race. The Rockets came into the season looking to compete, as evidenced by their offseason additions.

Ahead of the 2023-24 campaign, the Rockets hired Ime Udoka — who took a year-long furlough for non-basketball reasons after taking the Boston Celtics to the Finals in 2022. Then in free agency, they spent big to add veteran talent, landing two of the biggest deals of the summer by signing Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks. Teams hoping to be back at the top of the lottery usually don’t spend over $200 million in free agency.

With their new acquisitions, the Rockets got off to a great start. They stood at 13-9 through 22 games, appearing to be a Play-In team at worst. As opponents became better adjusted to Houston’s new look, they cooled off a bit but remained competitive at 19-19 nearly halfway through the season. The best part was that they had found success despite Jalen Green’s immense struggles.

At 13-9, a positive return to the mean from Green could have made them a serious playoff threat. At 19-19, he could have taken them into the Play-In Tournament if he returned to form. Houston is still waiting for the player they were hoping they’d get with the second-overall pick.

It’s not particularly rare for a player’s development to stagnate in their third year, especially if they were high-profile prospects. By their third season, players should have fully adjusted to the NBA’s pace and schedule, as well as addressing any glaring concerns in their games. As such, it’s much more difficult for players to make meaningful advancements in their growth as opposed to developing in their rookie or sophomore seasons.

It’s discouraging, though, that Green hasn’t only stalled his development, he’s deeply regressed. If his numbers hold, he’ll put up career lows in field-goal percentage, three-point field-goal percentage, and steals per game. He’s also taken a step back from last season in points, assists, and free-throw attempts.

Simply put, an inefficient volume scorer has become a wildly inefficient volume scorer. Some might say that he’s struggling to adjust to a reduced role, but his usage rate and field-goal attempts have only dipped slightly compared to last season.

His playmaking and defense haven’t improved either, and some would argue that he’s gotten worse in both those areas as well. The Rockets this season have a 116.9 defensive rating when Green is on the floor. When he’s riding the bench, they’re holding opponents to just 108.6 points per 100 possessions.

Through his first two campaigns, Green was given the benefit of the doubt. The scoring outbursts were encouraging, and the inefficiency could be chalked up to the lack of talent around him and the subpar coaching. The playmaking and defense would come with more experience, better leadership, and a more complementary roster. Now, all of those excuses are moot, and Green has failed to become anything more than a shot-chucker.

No one has been more aware of his struggles than Green himself, as he’s been visibly irritated with his own shortcomings and how the Rockets have responded. His exasperations are reportedly reaching a boiling point, according to Kelly Iko of The Athletic.

“Green’s frustrations this season have been clear. I was in the building last Friday for one of Houston’s more impressive home wins of the season over the Phoenix Suns. Green was glued to the bench for the entire fourth quarter. He didn’t look happy. This isn’t the first, second or third time that he’s not been on the floor in critical moments. It probably won’t be the last, either.”-Kelly Iko

Where do the Houston Rockets go from here?

Jalen Green is eligible for a contract extension this summer

Coming into the year, Green looked like a good candidate for a rookie max extension. Teams are eligible to lock down the prospects they selected in the first round of the NBA Draft following the third season of their career. Only a few surefire future stars are given the maximum extension every year, and Green was on his way to being one of them.

Now, the Rockets must be grappling with whether they’ll offer him an extension at all, let alone a max contract. Houston has already picked up their team option for his fourth year, so he’ll become a restricted free agent in the summer of 2025. With the way things are going, their best option might be to let him field offers after next season and see if they’re willing to match them.

Another option that’s on the table is to trade him. Between Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson, Tari Eason, and Cam Whitmore, the Rockets are loaded with promising, young talent. So much so, that they probably can’t afford to hold on to all of them even if they wanted to.

Throw Green into the mix, and Houston will have some tough choices to make soon. There’s a strong chance that trading Green this summer will bring back the best possible return for the Rockets, while teams can still acquire him ahead of restricted free agency and before he can further damage his trade value next season.

It may be a little rash to trade him away, but the Rockets need to re-evaluate their former prized pick. He may not like it, but a move to the bench might be what’s best for both him and his team, especially with Amen Thompson’s ascension.

It’s tough to give up on a prospect, especially one that was taken second overall. But it’ll be even tougher for Houston if they become another example of the “sunk-cost fallacy.”