The Patriots and Commanders could trade back in 2024 NFL Draft

Highlights

• The Washington Commanders and New England Patriots both face a dilemma with their top three draft picks.
• With a consensus “Big 3” at quarterback in the 2024 Draft, both teams must feel comfortable with the options still on the board when it is time to make their selection.
• Trading down could mean more assets to begin their rebuilds, but passing up a supremely talented quarterback class may prove too difficult.

The Washington Commanders and New England Patriots hold the second and third overall picks in the 2024 NFL Draft, respectively. Both teams are widely expected to take one of the “Big 3” quarterbacks in this year’s class: Caleb Williams (USC), Drake Maye (UNC), and Jayden Daniels (LSU).

However, recent reports have begun to muddle those beliefs, as NFL Network’s Ian Rapoport explained at the 2024 NFL Combine:

Sam Howell and Mac Jones have failed to prove themselves as surefire franchise quarterbacks in their respective opportunities, and it would be questionable decision-making from two organizations with new head coaches to pass on the quarterbacks in this year’s draft.

Both teams are flush with cap space – the Patriots rank fourth in the NFL with more than $79 million and the Commanders rank first with roughly $82.3 million – and could make a play for a veteran quarterback like Kirk Cousins, but neither are all that close to contention.

Would the Commanders and Patriots be making a massive mistake by trading down, or is there wisdom in collecting more assets for their upcoming rebuilds?

Commanders are too all-in on offense to back out now

New OC Kliff Kingsbury has a history of developing young QBs

Standing in front of both the Commanders and the Patriots are the Chicago Bears, who hold the first overall pick in the draft for the second year in a row.

Last year, Chicago passed on selecting a replacement for Justin Fields, trading down and nabbing star receiver D.J. Moore and draft picks (including this year’s top overall pick) in return. The odds aren’t especially high that they’ll pass up on that opportunity again, though even if they do, chances are whoever trades into the top spot will take Williams.

Rest assured, if Williams is still on the board after the first selection on draft night, the Commanders will pounce. New offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury spent the 2023 season coaching Williams at USC, and according to USC head coach Lincoln Reily (via an interview with Good Morning Football), the two have a strong relationship:

They have a great relationship. It was awesome for Caleb to have Kliff… In a perfect world, would I love a reunion for them? That would be great. But we all know a lot [will] transpire between now and the draft.

With Kingsbury now in Washington, it stands to reason that the Commanders would want a crack at seeing if their relationship could translate to the pro level. It’s possible the Commanders could cut out the guesswork and just trade with the Bears for the first pick, but that might prove prohibitive if Chicago is really demanding a historic haul.

Even if they’re forced to choose between Maye and Daniels, though, the Commanders still need to take advantage of their draft positioning. Their offense hasn’t ranked better than 20th in yards nor better than 23rd in points over the last three years, mostly due to poor quarterback play.

Quarterback Sam Howell led the league with 21 interceptions and 65 sacks taken in 2023, despite having wide receivers Terry McLaurin, Curtis Samuel, Jahan Dotson, and running back Brian Robinson beside him. His poor processing and indecisiveness in the pocket don’t play well behind a talent-bereft offensive line.

The Commanders could trade down and try to beef up that pass protector group, but they may not get another chance at drafting a quarterback as talented as Maye or Daniels for a long time. It would behoove them to take a swing at a signal caller and trust that Kingsbury can work his magic.

The Patriots have more team needs than just QB

New England has massive needs at wide receiver and along the offensive line

Picking third compared to second may not seem like all that much of a difference, but when there are three options to choose from (according to the consensus of most draft experts), picking last means you may get stuck with your least preferred choice.

A recent report from Chad Greene and Jeff Howe states that new head coach Jerod Mayo is at the NFL Draft Combine this week in Indianapolis, with the intention of sitting in on the team’s interviews with the top three quarterback prospects.

The team may want to select one of the quarterbacks, but without a firm front office structure in place (Eliot Wolf is the de facto general manager by role, not by title), it’d be risky to take the quarterback the Bears and Commanders didn’t want.

Like the Commanders, the Patriots’ offense has struggled mightily in recent times. Mac Jones was a Pro Bowler in his rookie season, but he’s severely regressed since then. His completion percentage, passing yardage, touchdown total, and passer rating have fallen in each of his three seasons at the helm.

Jones’ precipitous decline hasn’t been entirely his fault: Matt Patricia and Bill O’Brien have been calling his plays over the last two seasons, and the support from his skill positions has been dubious at best.

In 2023, the Patriots’ leading receiver was sixth-round rookie Demario Douglas, who had 561 yards on 49 catches. No one else on the roster surpassed 500 receiving yards last season. The team’s leading rusher, veteran Ezekiel Elliot, had only 642 yards on 3.5 yards per carry.

New England’s seventh-ranked total defense kept them in games last year, but their scoring offense was tied for last in the league with 13.9 points per game. They need a lot of help on offense, and asking either Daniels or Maye to be the franchise savior with nonexistent support will almost certainly stunt the development of either quarterback.

With starting tackles Trent Brown and Mike Onwenu set to hit free agency this offseason, the team could begin rebuilding their offense with a star offensive line prospect. The Atlanta Falcons – who have the eighth overall pick in the draft – are in desperate need of a quarterback, and the Patriots could still be in position to take Noter Dame’s Joe Alt or Penn State’s Olu Fahanu even after sliding down a few spots.

Finding a franchise quarterback may be the ultimate goal of every NFL franchise, but if the Patriots don’t like what’s left for them on draft night, they could avoid a franchise-altering mistake by trading out of the top three.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise. All salary cap info via Spotrac.