Every Premier League team’s total expected goals conceded in 2024

Highlights

• Arsenal boast the best Premier League defence in 2024 by far, with a total expected goals conceded tally of just 1.9.
• Everton have been impressive defensively this year, largely thanks to the partnership of Jarrad Branthwaite and James Tarkowski.
• Newcastle have been all at sea at the back in 2024, having conceded the most goals and having the highest expected goals conceded.

The 2023/24 Premier League season has been full of carnage, excitement and – most importantly – a barrage of goals. Talking points aplenty have been thrown up in the wake of the exciting campaign – most notably in the form of goals. In early February, Phil Foden’s third of the evening against Brentford marked the round of fixture’s 45th, making it the highest-scoring Gameweek since the division’s inception in 1992.

But where has this goalscoring frenzy come from? More expansive football from managers? The willingness to run that extra mile to get a strike off? While those statements may have legs, the fact of the matter is that the decline in defending has made teams more vulnerable when up against it.

Since the turn of the year, many teams have been subject to an obscene number of shots, with teams at both ends of the spectrum looking to fire themselves to gold or survival. It really is the business end of the season.

And what better way to assess how all 20 Premier League sides have been getting on than looking at the expected goals (xG) conceded? The folks over at The Athletic, via Opta,have produced a telling graph – ranking each team from worst to best in terms of xG against since the turn of the year. For some, the results are damning. For others, it gives them something to scream and shout about. Without further ado, let’s take a look at some of the most notable teams – for bad or for worse.

Arsenal – xG conceded: 1.9

Actual goals conceded: 3

Quite incredibly, in their quest of their first top flight title since the 2003/04 season, Mikel Arteta has mustered defensive brilliance in north London. But in fairness, after finishing five points off the pace last time out, the Spanish tactician has never remained coy when describing his ambitions for the current term, per The Athletic.

“Suffocating the opponent more. Conceding zero chances and play further from our goal.”

And well, Arsenal have done just that. In terms of their back line, they have been pretty industrious throughout 23/24 but they have upped the ante in 2024. Many of the plaudits have been issued towards the likes of Bukayo Saka and Co., who – no doubt – have been in rampant form as they embark on a rare three-horse race for the Premier League crown.

But to disrepute their sturdy back line would be unfair. The addition of Declan Rice and the impeccable fitness of William Saliba and Gabriel has allowed the triumvirate of stars to shut up shop in front of their goal, which allows their xG conceded (1.9) to be better than their actual goals conceded (3).

Everton – xG conceded: 7.7

Actual goals conceded: 6

While off-the-field issues have done their utmost to compound Everton’s hopes of staying in the top division, their on-field exploits have been more than impressive – with Sean Dyche and his entourage having formed one of the safest back lines throughout the top tier.

Jarrad Branthwaite’s emergence into the senior set-up at Goodison Park has paid dividends for Dyche with his imposing figure boosting their ability to defend both from set-piece situations and while being counter-attacked tenfold. His partnership with James Tarkowski has gone from strength to strength this season – and it shows.

From six games played in 2024, the Toffees have conceded a total of six goals but, as predicted by Opta, should have conceded 7.7. The finest of margins can decipher whether a side faces the prospect of relegation or not, but if the aforementioned duo – alongside the imperious Jordan Pickford – can continue to work as a solid unit, they should have no problem with staying afloat.

Nottingham Forest – xG conceded: 8.2

Actual goals conceded: 13

Given the nature of Nottingham Forest’s exuberant spending, it will always be difficult to gel as a back four/five with Premier League fixtures coming thick and fast. The relentlessness of the top tier is demanding – as the Tricky Trees have found out this season, one in which saw them part ways with Steve Cooper in December.

Adjusting to Nuno Espírito Santo’s way of working has taken its toll on the Forest squad, especially from a defensive point of view. Most recently, they shipped four goals away at Aston Villa, which has only inflicted more damage on the bid to stay up.

Compared to their fellow Premier League sides, however, they have a relatively strong xG conceded rate (8.2) – just behind Tottenham Hotspur (8.0). That said, the fact they have conceded 13 goals in the same time frame says it all – but perhaps there’s a bit of misfortune that comes into play in that case. Either way, shoring up the back line between now and the end of the season will be at the top of Nuno’s priority list.

Liverpool – xG conceded: 10.0

Actual goals conceded: 9

Jurgen Klopp, in his final season as Liverpool chief, has his eyes locked in on multiple honours. After overseeing Chelsea in the League Cup final with a heavily rotated side, all focus returns to the Premier League – and the likes of Mohamed Salah, Darwin Nunez and Diogo Jota (when fit) will do their job at the top of the field.

The xG conceded does need some work, however, given that their record of 10 exceeds the likes of Chelsea, Bournemouth and Crystal Palace. As mentioned, the German tactician has not had much wiggle room in recent weeks thanks to injuries to Liverpool trio Allison Becker, Joel Matip and Trent Alexander-Arnold.

Usually resolute at the back, much of their defensive complacency can be attributed to their lack of first team options with a heavy reliance on youth (most notably Conor Bradley and Jarell Quansah) to emulate the performances of those they are replacing. In terms of actual goals conceded, Klopp’s men are bettering their xG conceded with nine goals hitting the back of their net in seven domestic outings since the turn of the year.

Manchester United – xG conceded: 10.3

Actual goals conceded: 9

Much has been made of Manchester United’s porous defence – but much of the onus is on the ability of the opposition to carve open their midfield with relative ease. In terms of xG conceded, the statistics make for grim reading for those associated with the 20-time domestic champions, though their actual goals against (9) is better than what they are predicted to have seen fly past Andre Onana (10.3).

Talking of the fully-fledged Cameroon international, it’s not been an easy start to his Old Trafford career – and much of his insipid start in Red Devils colours can be attributed to adjusting to a new division. A host of injuries to Erik ten Hag’s back four has also not helped the Dutchman’s case. The likes of Lisandro Martinez and Luke Shaw, whose profiles are crucial to how the team defend, have been in and out of the team with various issues – which, from the off, messes with the configuration of players ahead of Onana.

Given that only Sheffield United, Luton Town and West Ham United have faced more shots in the Premier League than the Manchester-based outfit this season, being sixth and in with a shot of securing European football could be considered miraculous in Ten Hag’s eyes.

Newcastle United – xG conceded: 20.5

Actual goals conceded: 20

There are worrying signs that need to be addressed at St James’ Park. Last season, Eddie Howe’s Newcastle United were praised by pundits and other managers alike for his side’s defensive acumen – so much so that Champions League qualification was secured after north of 20 years away from Europe’s top table.

Things haven’t gone so swimmingly for the Magpies this season, particularly in 2024, with 20 goals being shipped in seven fixtures. Their recent 4-4 draw with Luton Town embodied the majority of the problems in terms of facing a barrage of shots as their 2024 total for xG conceded is 20.5 – the highest (and thus, worst) in the division.

Granted, the losses of Nick Pope and Sandro Tonali, who has been working tirelessly behind the scenes to help aid his return, have forced Newcastle’s hand to field players that wouldn’t necessarily be starters – but any glimmer of Howe’s defensive stability has seemingly gone out the window since the turn of the year and now, securing European football of any kind seems like a tall order as we head into the final stage of the term.

All statistics per the Athletic, via Opta.