Raptors Primed to Play for Draft Position Amid Scottie Barnes’ Injury

Highlights

• Raptors face uphill battle for playoffs without Barnes, should aim for higher draft pick
• Raptors may retain draft pick from Spurs if top-6; looking at prospects for improving team
• Targets include 3-and-D wings Risacher & Williams or big men Sarr & Filipowski, among others

As Toronto Raptors forward Scottie Barnes held his left hand, screaming, the immediate reaction was to wonder just how bad the injury was for the 2024 NBA All-Star. Shortly after their loss to the Golden State Warriors, the answer would be revealed, as Barnes would be ruled out indefinitely with a hand fracture.

At just 22-38, the Raptors are 12th in the East; four games behind the 10th-place Atlanta Hawks and 11.5 games behind the 8th-place Indiana Pacers. While miracles can happen, the Raptors only have 22 games to make up ground. Even if Barnes was healthy, Toronto has a steep uphill climb if they want to reach the 2024 NBA Playoffs.

Consequentially, the best course for the Raptors for the remainder of the season could be to play for draft position rather than trying to work their magic for a playoff position.

Keeping their lottery pick

The Toronto Raptors could have two first-round picks in the 2024 NBA Draft

Looking at their picks for the upcoming draft, the Raptors currently only have one first-round pick, and it’s not even their own. Per Tankathon, the Pacers (34-27) currently hold the No. 15 pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, and owe the pick to the Raptors as part of the deal that sent Pascal Siakam from Toronto to Indiana.

However, the Raptors could have two first round picks in the upcoming draft. Set to trade what’s currently the No. 7 pick to the San Antonio Spurs as part of the Jakob Poeltl deal, Toronto could keep their draft pick if it lands within the top-6. In fact, the Raptors won’t have to convey a first-round pick to the Spurs at all if they have a top-6 pick through 2026.

As a caveat, in any draft, lottery position is ultimately determined not only by win-loss record but by the NBA Draft Lottery itself. Nonetheless, teams with one of the two worst records in the NBA are guaranteed to pick within the top-6.

Due to how poorly the Detroit Pistons, Washington Wizards, and San Antonio Spurs are playing, such a record may be out of reach even with an all-out tanking effort. Still, the team with the third-worst record has a 93 percent chance of landing a top-6 pick in the NBA Draft and the team with the fourth-worst record has an 80 percent chance. Those odds continue to slightly decrease from there, but Toronto would be in a decent position if they finished with the 5th or 6th worst record in the league to own their pick this year.

To that point, in the coming months, Toronto would be wise to strategize; keeping their pick in the 2024 NBA Draft could allow them to acquire a much-needed piece of their championship puzzle.

Finding the right piece

Looking at 2024 NBA Draft prospects that fit the Raptors’ team needs

With a core comprised of Scottie Barnes, RJ Barrett, Immanuel Quickley, and Gradey Dick, there’s plenty to like and to work with.

Barnes is a point-forward capable of scoring at all three levels, though he prefers to get his points inside the paint. Barrett, the Toronto native, is a slashing swingman that can be a threat from outside the arc as well. Quickley, currently shooting 40.8 percent from 3, is a relatively balanced combo guard. Lastly, Dick has proven himself to be a promising 3-point threat, knocking down 37.8 percent of his attempts thus far through his rookie season.

In theory, all four players could start alongside each other and be a clean fit. However, Raptors head coach Darko Rajaković could also opt to continue bringing Dick off the bench, fortifying their second unit’s scoring punch. So, when looking at who Toronto may target with a top-six pick in the 2024 NBA Draft, there are a few routes they could take.

At the top of the list, the Raptors could look for a swingman to complement Barnes and Barrett, who are both better off-the-dribble than as spot-up threats. This could also allow them to replace OG Anunoby, whom they traded to the New York Knicks in the deal that landed them Barrett and Quickley.

Looking at the prospects projected to be selected within the first six picks of the upcoming draft, JL Bourg forward Zaccharie Risacher and Colorado wing Cody Williams are the most suited to fill that void. Not only have they both been excellent from beyond the arc throughout the 2023-24 season, but they have the physical tools and instincts to perform well defensively at the next level.

However, their desire for a 3-and-D wing ultimately depends on what they believe Dick’s ceiling to be on the defensive end. Thus far, the 20-year-old hasn’t done much in the way of creating defensive events such as steals or blocks. His lack of high-end lateral agility leaves him vulnerable to being exposed by shifty or athletic players. Nonetheless, his length and basketball IQ allow him to be respectable at that end.

Another position that the Raptors could prioritize in the 2024 NBA Draft is center. Though Jakob Poeltl is a solid defender, his inability to space the floor often clogs the lane, making it that much more difficult for Barnes — already the focal point for opposing defenses — to score. Behind him is Kelly Olynyk, a skilled big with a nice touch from 3-point range, but whose lack of athleticism severely limits him as a defender.

There are two center prospects that could be top-6 picks and help Toronto in this area: Perth’s Alexandre Sarr and Duke’s Kyle Filipowski.

Sarr is the more athletic of the two and the better defensive weapon as well, appearing just as capable of guarding players out on the perimeter as he is turning away shots at the rim. Offensively, Sarr has displayed nascent guard abilities, including the potential to bring the ball up the floor. He’s only shot 27.8 percent from beyond the arc this season, but there’s enough potential there to believe he can be relatively efficient from deep.

Then there’s Filipowski, who’s shooting over 34 percent from three-point range as a true 7-footer. More explosive vertically than he is laterally, there’s a bit of concern about his ability to play out in space. However, the New York native is an event creator on the defensive end, averaging 1.6 blocks and 1.0 steal per game.

To note, the Raptors could also opt to draft a true point guard. Yet, with so many of their current core players needing the ball in their hands to thrive, it doesn’t seem all too likely. Taking the ball out of Barnes’ hands any more than he already has could severely undermine his point-forward potential.

Even when considering their second first-round pick, it seems more shrewd for Toronto to acquire a savvy veteran point guard than a rookie still learning the ropes. To that point, a player such as former No. 5 pick Kris Dunn– a low-usage floor general–would be their best option.

Nonetheless, with their second 2024 first-round pick, there will be an opportunity for them to select whichever mold of player they didn’t take with their top-6 pick. Looking at wings, prospects such as Miami swingman Kyshawn George and G League Ignite forward Tyler Smith, both are intriguing 3-and-D options. As far as big men are concerned, Indiana center Kel’el Ware and NBA Academy Africa’s Ulrich Chomche stand out due to how their skill sets fit the needs of Toronto.