Predicting the top 3 finalists for each NBA award

Highlights

• Rudy Gobert, Victor Wembanyama, and Chet Holmgren are top contenders for Defensive Player of the Year.
• Malik Monk, Norman Powell, and Tim Hardaway Jr. are strong candidates for Sixth Man of the Year.
• Tyrese Maxey, Alperen Sengun, and Cam Thomas lead the pack for Most Improved Player.

The 2023-24 season was always sure to be entertaining, as storylines about superstars and future faces of the franchise started long before tip-off. Nonetheless, while factors such as player movement will always draw attention to the league, the basketball product itself is what keeps NBA fans coming back year after year.

To that point, basketball players across the world appear to be more skilled than ever, and that bodes well for a league transitioning to a new era amid the gradual phasing out of aging superstars.

Taking a deeper look at the 2023-24 season, one can see the foundation of a fresh NBA. Though older superstars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant, and Stephen Curry remain dominant, young stars are cropping up across the league. In fact, when considering the potential finalists for this season’s NBA awards, many appear to be part of the up-and-coming generation.

Defensive Player of the Year

1. Rudy Gobert, 2. Victor Wembanyama, 3. Chet Holmgren

San Antonio Spurs franchise cornerstone Victor Wembanyama will receive strong consideration for the Defensive Player of the Year award.

An intimidating shot-blocker at 7-foot-4, the 2023 first overall pick is averaging a league-leading 3.2 blocks per game as a rookie. He also makes a sizable impact on the defensive glass, averaging 7.9 defensive rebounds per game, and in the passing lanes with 1.3 steals per game. When considering players who have made extraordinary impacts on the game defensively, it’s difficult to think of many players who have been more formidable than him.

That Wembanyama is doing all this in 28.5 minutes per game is striking, as he’s only going to get better with time. In fact, looking at numbers that would be less affected by his playing time than his averages magnifies his magnificence. To that point, Wembanyama has the second-best defensive rating (107.9) in the NBA, despite playing for a rebuilding team.

Wembanyama’s compatriot, and Minnesota Timberwolves center Rudy Gobert, is not a highly popular player. As it relates to his being recognized for his play this season, public perception of his character could—unfairly—factor into whether he becomes a four-time Defensive Player of the Year. Nonetheless, averaging 2.1 blocks per game (t-8th in the NBA) and 9.0 defensive rebounds per game (4th in the NBA) help his cause. So too does him holding opponents to 48.4 percent shooting within six feet of the rim.

The league leader in defensive rating (104.5), Gobert has the numbers to back up the eye test. What’s more, while long considered one of the best interior defenders in the NBA, the Frenchman has considerably improved his ability to guard players out in space; his well-documented Achilles heel.

Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren’s long-awaited rookie campaign has not disappointed. Boasting incredible length at 7-foot-1 with a 7-foot-6 wingspan, the 2022 No. 2 pick makes several eye-popping plays throughout the game. His most consistent impact appears to be as a shot-blocker. Ranked second in the league in total blocks (148), Holmgren has 50 games with at least one block and 26 games with at least three blocks. Notably, he averages 2.6 blocks per game, which surpasses even Gobert.

Sixth Man of the Year

1. Malik Monk, 2. Norman Powell, 3. Tim Hardaway Jr.

The first two finalists for the 2024 Sixth Man of the Year award could both come from sunny California.

First up is Sacramento Kings guard Malik Monk. Finishing fifth in Sixth Man of the Year voting last season, Monk has improved his play in 2023-24, averaging career-highs of 15.2 points and 5.2 assists per game. With the Kings currently sitting at 32-23, his play in the clutch is a key factor in their winning ways. Monk has 70 points in the clutch on the season, behind only the face of the franchise, De’Aaron Fox (94).

Next up is Los Angeles Clippers defensive specialist Norman Powell, who’s averaging 13.5 points per game while shooting 49.4 percent from the field and 45.3 percent from deep (fourth-highest mark in the NBA). Powell is also notably shooting 57.1 percent from the field and 44.4 percent from 3-point range in the clutch. He’s tallied more points (29) in those high-pressure situations than even teammate James Harden (25).

Looking at the high-octane second-unit scorers this season, Dallas Mavericks wing Tim Hardaway Jr. (17.2 PPG) and Utah Jazz guard Jordan Clarkson (17.2 PPG) stand out. Atlanta Hawks veteran Bogdan Bogdanović has been making fine contributions off the bench this season as well, averaging a career-high 16.9 points per game.

However, out of this trio, only Hardaway’s squad is earmarked as a playoff team. That’s mainly a byproduct of Luka Doncic and Kyrie Irving’s excellence. Nonetheless, Hardaway averaging 15.8 points per game as a reserve and 23.0 points per game as spot starter is significant.

Most Improved Player

1. Tyrese Maxey, 2. Alperen Sengun, 3. Cam Thomas

The competition for the Most Improved Player award may be as steep as ever, as there are several deserving candidates this season.

Leading the field is Philadelphia 76ers guard Tyrese Maxey, who hit the ground running as he stepped up for the departed James Harden. Averaging 30.3 points and 6.3 assists per game in the first three games of the season, Maxey has since cooled down a bit but is still averaging 25.8 points and 6.4 assists per game for the season.

A first-time All-Star in 2023-24, his improved playmaking in combination with his off-the-dribble defense makes him one of the best backcourt weapons in the NBA.

Houston Rockets center Alperen Sengun has become one of the most popular players in the league, among fans and media alike. Now drawing comparisons to elite hoopers such as fulcrum Nikola Jokic, it’s not hyperbole to say that Sengun is the Rockets’ most dynamic center since Hakeem Olajuwon.

The 16th overall pick in the 2021 NBA Draft, Sengun’s averages of 21.1 points, 9.1 rebounds, 5.0 assists, and 1.1 steals per game– all career-highs — highlight his new role as Houston’s top dog. To compare, Sengun averaged just 14.8 points per game last season.

Brooklyn Nets guard Cam Thomas edges out Chicago Bulls guard Coby White, Golden State Warriors forward Jonathan Kuminga, and Atlanta Hawks forward Jalen Johnson for the final finalist spot.

Averaging 21.1 points per game as one of the Nets’ top scoring options, Thomas is now a full-time starter in Brooklyn, and that’s been the case all season. He averaged 10.6 points per game last season, despite averaging 39.0 points per game in the four contests that he started. Those games created the legend of Cam Thomas, but this season has shown that the man is more than myth.

Most Valuable Player

1. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, 2. Donovan Mitchell, 3. Nikola Jokic

There’s no set criteria for Most Valuable Player (much to the chagrin of many). However, when splitting hairs between the league’s greatest talents, comparing their impact against that of their teammates is a logical place to start.

To that point, there are only three players in the NBA who are averaging at least 25 points per game while all of their teammates average under 20 points per game: Oklahoma City Thunder guard Shai Gilgeous-Alexander; Cleveland Cavaliers guard Donovan Mitchell; and Golden State Warriors guard Stephen Curry. However, Nikola Jokic’s dominance and team success allows him to surpass Curry.

At 39-17, second in the West, Gilgeous-Alexander’s team has the best record of the trio. The 6-foot-6 playmaker has developed into a dominant scorer over the years, utilizing his craftiness and shooting touch to average 31.1 points per game. That he’s done so efficiently–shooting 54.8 percent from the field and 37.5 percent from three– only makes his numbers that much more impressive.

Yet, it’s his contributions to the other areas of the game that allow him to lead the field of MVP candidates. Gilgeous-Alexander’s defensive improvements have led to him averaging a career-high and league-leading 2.1 steals per game.

A similar story can be told of Mitchell, who is averaging 28.4 points, 6.3 assists, and 1.9 steals per game this season. Though a bit streakier than Gilgeous-Alexander, the 5-time All-Star is shooting 47.3 percent from the field and 36.1 percent from 3-point range. Most importantly, he’s leading the charge for a Cavaliers group that is 18-2 in the last 20 games that he’s played in. Cleveland is currently second in the East at 36-19.

It’s necessary to mention the Denver Nuggets center, only the third player in NBA history to record a triple-double against all 30 teams. His impact in Denver may transcend any set criteria for MVP.

The fulcrum of Denver’s principled offense, Jokic leads the Nuggets in points (1,432) and assists (503), but also in rebounds (671). He ranks second in steals (64) and blocks (50). Among all NBA players, he ranks second in triple-doubles with 17. Furthermore, while Jamal Murray’s scoring average (20.4 points per game) is noteworthy, he’s played in 14 fewer games (41) than Jokic, who is averaging 26.0 points and 9.1 assists per game.

For comparison, Jalen Williams has only missed five more games than Gilgeous-Alexander, who has played in 55 games this season as well. Meanwhile, Darius Garland has played in 13 fewer games (31) than Mitchell. Yet, Mitchell has missed far more games this season (11) than either Gilgeous-Alexander (1) or Jokic (2).

To touch on the topic of Curry’s candidacy, the Warriors are just 29-26, 10th in the West. To that point, the Nuggets are 8.0 games ahead of Golden State in the Western Conference standings.

Nonetheless, the Nuggets are just 12-11 when they’re missing at least one starter this season. Not only does this suggest that there’s far more to Denver’s success than Jokic’s stupendous shot-making playmaking, it makes it that much more difficult to penalize Curry for his team’s relative lack of success. Over the years, Klay Thompson and the Warriors’ decline have been intertwined. The unreliability of Draymond Green and Andrew Wiggins, in terms of their availability, are issues as well.

With that in mind, while the Warriors have underwhelmed this season, Curry has typically been outstanding. Indeed, he isn’t just their most productive offensive player, he’s the backbone of their offensive system. Though not excelling on the defensive end like Gilgeous-Alexander or Mitchell, who also met the aforementioned MVP criteria, Curry is averaging an impressive 27.8 points per game while shooting 41.9 percent from three. He leads the league in 3-point field goals with 261 made threes this season.

However, Jokic’s ability to carry a team to a high seed in the West allows him to surpass Curry.

Rookie of the Year

1. Victor Wembanyama, 2. Chet Holmgren, 3. Brandon Miller

The Rookie of the Year race has been fun to watch, with several highly touted prospects in the running for the award at the beginning of the season.

However, as it so often happens, the proverbial cream has risen to the top midway through 2023-24. At the head of the class is none other than San Antonio Spurs sensation Victor Wembanyama, who leaves a giant handprint on the game every time he steps on the floor. The youngest player in NBA history to record a 5×5 game, to score at least 20 points in a single half in the play-by-play era, and to record a 20-point, 20-rebound game, Wembanyama already looks like he has Hall of Fame potential.

Averaging 20.6 points, 10.1 rebounds, 3.3 assists, 3.3 blocks, and 1.3 steals per game, the 20-year-old can do it all thanks to his combination of length, fluidity, and guard skills. His scoring, rebounding, block and steal averages all lead the 2023 draft class.

Though drafted in 2022, Oklahoma City Thunder center Chet Holmgren missed the entire 2022-23 season with a foot injury, making him eligible for the Rookie of the Year award. By all accounts, Holmgren has met the high expectations that talent evaluators have had since his high school days.

He makes big-time plays on both ends of the floor, skying for lobs, knocking down 3s, and turning shots away at the rim. His averages among rookies in points (16.7) and blocks (2.7) rank second, while his rebounding average (7.6) ranks third. His 3-point percentage (39.6) ranks second among rookies that play at least 20.0 minutes per game.

Last but perhaps not least is Charlotte Hornets forward Brandon Miller, who has been relatively unheralded throughout the 2023-24 season. Now tasked with being Charlotte’s go-to scorer while LaMelo Ball sits out with an injury, the 21-year-old has been among the most consistent and productive rookies for months.

A two-way impact player who has modeled his game after 9-time All-Star, Paul George, Miller is an adept on-ball scorer and off-ball outlet. The second overall pick in the 2023 NBA Draft, Miller is averaging 16.5 points per game this season while shooting 38.2 percent from 3. His scoring average ranks second among the 2023 draft class, while his 3-point percentage ranks third among rookies who play at least 20.0 minutes per game.