Modern NBA Offenses are Getting out of Hand

Highlights

• NBA offenses are becoming increasingly efficient, leading to record-breaking offensive ratings.
• League philosophy has shifted towards prioritizing offense, resulting in less emphasis on defense.
• Refereeing changes have impacted foul calls, leading to concerns about modern NBA gameplay balance.

On February 27th, 2024, the NBA’s competition committee officially launched an investigation on whether the game has been too advantageous for offenses and whether changes need to be implemented to achieve better balance.

And it’s easy to see why. NBA offenses have gotten out of hand, and to the point where each new offensive record broken seems to be met with less excitement than the last. For example, compare the offensive production of the top offensive teams just six years ago to today. The 2018 Western Conference Finals between the Golden State Warriors and Houston Rockets felt like the pinnacle of NBA offense.

On one hand, you had arguably the greatest team ever assembled, with some of the greatest shooters in NBA history, all in their prime. On the other, you had a team coached by one of the greatest offensive masterminds leading a team perfectly built around a prime James Harden. And yet neither of those teams would even rank in the top seventeen in offensive rating in today’s NBA.

NBA offensive efficiency is growing at an exponential rate. In 2020, the Dallas Mavericks made history by being the only team to achieve an offensive rating of 116.

One year later, that rating was surpassed by seven other teams, including the Brooklyn Nets, who became the first team in history to achieve an offensive rating of over 118.

Two years later, the Sacramento Kings broke that record, and are currently the all-time leader with an offensive rating of 119.4. This season, five more NBA teams are on pace to beat the record again.

That means that, statistically, the five most efficient offensive seasons in NBA history are happening right now.

It’s Not Just The Teams

League Wide Average True Shooting is the Highest It’s Ever Been (58.2%)

In 2016, Stephen Curry became the first-ever unanimous MVP award winner, thanks in large part to his unparalleled offensive efficiency. He put up 30 points a game on a league-high 67 percent true shooting, 3.6 percent higher than the second-ranked Kevin Durant’s 63.4 percent true shooting.

As impressive as that accomplishment was, that number isn’t even high enough to crack the top ten in the 2024 NBA season. Today, 67 percent true shooting would be good for just 13th in the league and 63.4 percent true shooting would amount to just 47th in the league.

While those numbers are still impressive today, it just goes to show how much more “efficient” scoring has become, almost to the point where the numbers feel inflated. And it sort of is.

Can anyone really make a genuine argument that the top twelve players on this list are more efficient than Curry was in his unanimous MVP season, or that any team today is more offensively dominant and impressive than the 2018 Warriors and Rockets? So what’s the reason for these inflated numbers?

Shift In League Philosophy

More tools for offenses to thrive and more restrictions on defense

The main reason for the rise in offensive efficiency is due to the shift in the philosophy of how the game is played. Ever since “Morey Ball” proved to be a success, teams have completely changed the way they run their offense. Offensive schemes are built around generating the most efficient shots. Today, around 76 percent of shots come from threes or at the rim.

As teams are focusing on optimizing the offensive end of the game, defense has become less valued. Defense is still extremely important and necessary to succeed. However, we’ve reached this stage where a good offense is more valuable than a good defense.

And this is because the talent pool has just gotten too good to the point where teams can’t even rely on their best defenders to shut down opposing scorers as a win condition. It sounds silly to say, but the only way to consistently win is to focus on trying to outscore the opposing teams, rather than preventing them from scoring. The Milwaukee Bucks are an example of this.

They traded away Jrue Holiday, one of the best perimeter defenders in the league, in exchange for Damian Lillard. Holiday was a crucial part of their elite defense, but the Bucks struggled in the 2022 and 2023 playoffs because their elite defense wasn’t capable of stopping elite scorers, and their offense wasn’t good enough to out-score opposing teams.

One thing to note is that refereeing has also played a large part. Although the free throw rate per 100 possessions is lower now than it was a decade ago, that stat can be deceiving in a vacuum.

The proportion of three-point attempts is much higher now, with the league averaging over 13 more three-point attempts today than it did a decade ago. These types of shots don’t result in that many fouls, yet the free throw rate is still practically identical.

This means that more fouls are being called on two-point attempts today than they were in the past. And this has been a topic of concern regarding the modern NBA. Offensive fouls from decades ago are being called as defensive fouls today.

For example, a player jumping onto his defender back in the 1990s would be given an offensive foul for intruding into his defender’s space. Today, there are countless examples of players who are being rewarded with free throws for doing the exact same thing.

The league needs to make changes to both the defensive and officiating rules to restore balance before the game gets out of hand. Just last season, a Clippers vs. Kings game combined for 351 points and this season, a Hawks vs. Pacers game combined for 309 points. At this rate, it’s not unlikely to say that a 400-point game could occur soon, and based on the general reaction to this past All-Star Game’s point total, that doesn’t seem promising for the future of the NBA.

While great offenses are fun to watch, there’s beauty on the defensive end too. This investigation must go through so that balance can be restored to the league.