Miami Heat Dominate the NBA While Terry Rozier Sits Out

Highlights

• Rozier’s fit with the Heat has been disappointing, despite small sample size.
• Miami excels without Rozier on the court.
• Rozier’s impact on Heat’s defense is concerning, but the team remains hopeful of improvement.

The Miami Heat have picked things up since starting the season slow. They are on the third-longest active winning streak in the NBA at five games and have jumped to the fifth seed in the Eastern Conference.

Although they are turning the page and ramping up as the postseason approaches, they have done so without the contribution of deadline acquisition, Terry Rozier. More specifically, they have performed better without Rozier on the court, creating an odd situation for the Heat.

Rozier hasn’t been the seamless fit he was expected to be

Stats with Heat: 13.2 PPG, 37.3 FG%, 25.5 3PT%

There was great optimism that Rozier would be a great fit within the Heat organization. Miami struggled with scoring, and Rozier’s shot creation ability would provide a much-needed lift, especially in situations where the Heat’s half-court offense would go stagnant.

Rozier was having the best year of his NBA career with the Charlotte Hornets when Miami pulled the trigger to trade for him. However, since joining the Heat, he hasn’t looked like the same player.

Rozier joined the team at a vital moment for the Heat as they were dealing with a variety of injuries, including to their star player, Jimmy Butler. However, they immediately lost their first four games with Rozier, which extended their losing streak to seven games at the time.

During those four games, which included losses to the Memphis Grizzlies, Boston Celtics, New York Knicks, and Phoenix Suns, Rozier averaged just 11.8 points, 4.5 assists, and 1.5 turnovers on 38 percent shooting from the field. At the surface level, the drop-off is significant, but deeper analysis shows some abnormal changes in Rozier’s game.

Every aspect of Rozier’s strengths has taken a huge dip since becoming a member of the Miami Heat. He was in the top 90th percentile in finishing at the basket with the Hornets, but has fallen off a cliff with the Heat entering the bottom two percentile.

His development in his performance is surprising, since Miami has better spacing than Charlotte, ranking 11th in the league in three-point shooting compared to the Hornets at 19th, allowing Rozier to have more space when attacking the basket. Rozier’s struggles have impacted the Heat, but important to note is the Heat’s success with Rozier off the court.

Heat have played exceptional basketball without Rozier

Record since acquiring Rozier: 9-6

Rozier’s tenure with the Heat hasn’t been pretty thus far and the team’s results show it. In the 11 games in which Rozier has played with Miami, they hold a record of 5-6. However, they are 4-0 without him and the numbers across the board display the drastic difference in team play.

The six-foot-two guard was brought in to be an upgrade from Kyle Lowry, who took a significant dip from his prior seasons with the Heat. But when comparing the two players’ impact with Miami, Lowry was -1 in point differential and the expected wins were just -1 when he was a member of the Heat.

Based on the statistics and impact the players had on the team, Rozier has been the downgrade of the two thus far. Rozier has never been a great individual defender in his NBA career. However, his offensive productivity made up for what he lacked on the defensive side of the ball, but this defensive disparity with Rozier on and off is the biggest of his career.

Opponents’ effective field goal percentage improves by +6.9 percent with Rozier on the court, which is among the worst in the entire NBA, sitting in the bottom percentile. The Heat on the season are the seventh-ranked defensive team with a defensive rating of 112.6.

However, with Rozier on the court, that rating drops to 115.0, which is the second-worst on the team. Rozier’s Player Impact Estimate, which is a statistic that calculates a player’s impact on each game they play, is 47.7, which is the fifth-worst on the team, with only non-rotation players below him.

Miami understands, amidst struggles, Rozier is key for deep run

Heat determined to get Rozier accumulated for team success

Miami is currently on a five-game win streak while Rozier only played just one game, which was their most recent win against the Portland Trail Blazers. He had one of his better games as a Heat member, finishing with 19 points, four assists and four rebounds while posting a net rating of +8.

Although the Heat have thrived without Rozier, the organization has made it clear that he’s important to their goals.

We’re definitely better when he’s aggressive, when [Rozier is] in attack mode, and we also like it when he’s putting pressure on the rim and making the appropriate plays. – Erik Spoelstra

As much as Rozier has struggled in Miami, this drop-off has never been seen in his career. Rozier is glad to be back in the lineup and to have avoided serious injury since he “thought it was pretty serious” via The Miami Herald.

The Heat have 24 games left and have the fourth-easiest strength of schedule remaining. The wins will accumulate and if Rozier can get his game sorted out, Miami can build serious momentum heading into the playoffs.

We have seen in this season alone a team be able to turn it around after a rocky start with new acquisitions, as the Los Angeles Clippers were 0-5 before winning their first game with James Harden. However, they have figured it out since going 34-11 and are now battling for the top seed in the Western Conference.

There is plenty of time to turn things around in Miami and if there’s a coach that is capable of doing so, it’s Spoelstra. The Heat and Rozier will get a huge test of their compatibility on the world stage in their next game against the Denver Nuggets in a rematch of the NBA Finals.