Lillard’s rough fit will affect the Bucks’ title chances

Highlights

• Damian Lillard’s shooting has been inconsistent & his role adjustment has impacted his performance.
• Giannis Antetokounmpo is excelling with the Bucks, but Lillard must provide the needed offensive support.
• The duo shows promise but hasn’t met expectations; Lillard’s improvement is key for the Bucks.

It’s safe to say that the Damian Lillard trade hasn’t paid off the way the Milwaukee Bucks expected. The Bucks are still a good basketball team, sitting at third in the Eastern Conference with a record of 40-21, but they’re nowhere near as dominant as everyone expected they would be.

The expectations for this Bucks team, and the Lillard-Antetokounmpo pairing were sky-high. Giannis Antetokounmpo was an elite inside player who lacked a reliable scorer to draw pressure off of him. Lillard was a dynamic scorer who didn’t have the supporting cast to succeed. After the trade, the Bucks became immediate favorites to win the title.

And yet five months later, the duo hasn’t lived up to the hype, and the Bucks have fallen to fourth in title odds. So what happened?

Shooting Struggles for Lillard

Last 15 Games: 21 points, 5 rebounds, 7 assists on 40 percent shooting

It’s no secret that Lillard hasn’t played to the level we know he’s been capable of. His averages are down all across the board. He’s averaging eight fewer points per game on worse shooting, both from two and three-point attempts. It’s clear that he hasn’t looked as comfortable this season, due to his change in role.

When he was on the Portland Trail Blazers, he was the number one option. The offense ran through him, and he was able to put up shots as he wanted. This season, he’s being forced to a slightly more off-ball role, which has never really been his strength. He’s averaging around 12 fewer touches per game and over three fewer field goal attempts per game.

He hasn’t been able to establish his rhythm as well in this role and hasn’t looked as comfortable. He’s missing a lot of the same shots that he would’ve made in previous years. He’s shooting nearly six percent less on open threes this season. At age 33, he’s exiting his prime and most likely won’t reach the level of the player he once was. However, despite his struggles this season, he’s still providing positive value for the Bucks, and specifically teammate Antetokounmpo.

Antetokounmpo is Thriving

Most efficient Season Ever (65.7 percent true shooting)

While Lillard has been struggling, Antetokounmpo has been playing better than ever. He’s averaging 30.8 points this season, just 0.4 short of a career-high while being the most efficient he’s ever been. He’s playing like an MVP candidate and has kept the Bucks afloat amidst Lillard’s shooting slump.

Although Lillard has been struggling with his shot, he’s still commanding a lot of respect. He’s consistently drawing multiple defenders when he touches the ball, and that’s creating a lot of space for Antetokounmpo. In the play below, Lillard draws three Pelicans defenders and finds Antetokounmpo for the easy dunk.

Although he’s attempting nearly two fewer field goals per game compared to last season, Antetokounmpo is averaging nearly the same amount of points. It’s a testament to the number of high-percentage shots he’s finding as a result of Lillard’s gravity.

The duo has still been successful, ranking 15th in net rating for two-man lineups that have played at least 1000 minutes together. They just haven’t played to the level that has been expected of them, which is disappointing because they gave up their elite defense in exchange for the potential of a greater offense.

Since Doc Rivers took over as head coach, Lillard’s defense has gotten observably better. He’s trying a lot more and hasn’t taken as many possessions off. In the play below, he fights over the screen, uses his active hands to take advantage of the bad pass, and gets an easy transition layup.

The Bucks have won their last five games and are slowly figuring things out despite Lillard’s shooting slumps. The Bucks are still a good team but it’s difficult to favor them over teams like the Denver Nuggets or Boston Celtics in a seven-game series. While Antetokounmpo may be playing exceptionally well, the Bucks have flamed out of the playoffs in the last two years despite the fact that he was elite.

The question has never been: Is Giannis good enough to lead the Bucks to another title? It’s: Can anyone else on the Bucks step up to take pressure off of him? Lillard was supposed to be that player, but based on his recent performance, it’s hard to tell if he can step up to the task. He’s still a net-positive player, but far from the player he once was. He’s going to have to string together a dominant post-All-Star break performance to instill confidence in the Bucks’ title hopes.