Green Bay Packers 2024 offseason preview

Highlights

• Jordan Love showcased elite potential, mirroring Aaron Rodgers’ rookie numbers.
• The Packers aim for the Super Bowl with rising talent but must address defensive issues.
• Green Bay eyes adding a safety and running back in free agency to complement roster depth.

The Green Bay Packers found another one! After 34 combined years of elite quarterback play from Aaron Rodgers and Brett Farve, 25-year-old Jordan Love takes the baton for the next decade. Armed with Love and top-five coach Matt LaFleur, the Packers punched above their weight class in 2023, beating the Dallas Cowboys on the road in the wild-card round.

They became the NFL’s youngest team since the 1970 NFL/AFL merger to win in the postseason. Their early breakthrough bolsters Super Bowl aspirations for next year, but they’ll need to fill a series of roster holes if they want a realistic chance at making the big game. Here’s the complete breakdown of Green Bay’s critical 2024 offseason.

Packers privilege

An elite coach and quarterback appear par for the course in Green Bay

As Bears fans weep over their equal ratio of mediocre QBs to deep-dish pizzas, Packers fans simply can’t relate. In his first full season as a starter, Love put up 4,159 passing yards, 32 touchdowns, and 11 interceptions with a 96.1 quarterback rating.

Those numbers look eerily similar to Rodgers’ maiden campaign of 4,038 yards, 28 TDs, 13 INTs TD, 93.6 passer rating. It’s especially impressive when you consider Love suffered through the growing pains of talented but young wide receivers, highlighted by the 10th-highest drop percentage in the league (5%).

From Week 9 on, Love unleashed hell, leading the Packers from 2-5 to 9-8 and into the playoffs. Over those final nine weeks, he threw 21 TDs compared to just three picks while recording the second most “big-time throws” over that period with 25. He also completed 68.3 percent of his passes at 7.7 yards per attempt.

Love earned the distinction as only the third first-year starter to throw for over 4000 yards and 32 touchdowns, joining the esteemed company of Patrick Mahomes and Kurt Warner.

Outside of Love, the Packers’ pass-catching options also showed tremendous growth. Rookie wide receiver Jayden Reed led the team in catches (64), receiving yards (793), and tied for TD receptions (eight). His ability to line up all over the field gave LaFluer maximum flexibility, evidenced by Reed’s 119 rushing yards and two TDs on jet sweeps and end arounds. His head coach called him a “war daddy.”

A dog. He’s a war daddy. He goes out there and he’s such a competitor. Got a lot of confidence in him. He continues to make big-time plays.

No one seems to know what a war daddy is, including Reed, but it sounds like someone you want on your team.

General manager Brian Gutekunst invested six non-first-round picks in pass-catching options since 2021: Amari Rodgers, Christian Watson, Romeo Doubs, Luke Musgrave, Reed, and Tucker Kraft to great success. Tight ends Musgrave and Kraft also look like staples for years to come.

Overall, 11 of the 13 2023 draft picks made contributions, portending a blinding bright future in Wisconsin.

Where Green Bay needs to improve

A defensive play-calling change could be exactly what Green Bay needs

The Packers finally cut the cord with beleaguered defensive coordinator Joe Barry. Last season, the team finished 17th in total defense, below their average rank of 14 during his three seasons with the team. That doesn’t sound terrible, but it’s highly underwhelming considering the team spent 12 of their last 13 first round draft picks on that side of the ball.

To get more out of that talented unit, they turned to first-year DC Jeff Hafley. He worked as a defensive backs coach in Cleveland and San Francisco before serving as Ohio State’s DC and head coach of Boston College. He’s credited for turning the Buckeyes’ defense from 72nd in yards per play to first in his lone season there.

Overall, the Packers’ safeties and linebackers need some upgrades to round out what has the potential to be a top 10 defense next season.

Free Agent Losses

16 players make up the Packers’ 2024 free agency list

David Bakhtiari

Bakhtiari isn’t a free agent, but he’s started only 13 games in the last three years and is coming off ACL surgery. His contract and injury status make predicting his future rather difficult. For now, he’s slated to be a $40 million cap hit, which would be the biggest non-QB cap hit in history. We can safely say that’s not going to happen.

A trade seems unlikely unless they can fleece the New York Jets into taking Aaron Rodgers’ good friend’s massive contract. Cutting him is also complicated due to his injury. Most likely, a restructure or a designated cut looks to be the most logical outcome.

Aaron Jones

Last offseason, Jones restructured his deal, taking roughly $5 million less to stay with the team. He’s set to make $12 million this upcoming season, which would likely be too rich for the Packers. Jones struggled with injury and was overpaid by $4.8 million last season based on his production, according to OverTheCap. Although, Gutekunst has stated publicly that Jones will return.

Fellow running back A.J. Dillon is also a free agent, which might give Jones some negotiation power. In all likelihood, he restructures again, or the team cuts him. You’d think the Packers would like to keep at least one of their running backs.

Most teams think that position can be patched with late round draft picks, like Isiah Pacheco, for example. Whether Dillon or Jones are back depends on their cataract needs. This RB free agent class looks particularly juicy, so it’s unlikely they keep both.

Free agent targets

The Packers could be aggressive in the market

Green Bay is currently projected with $23.7 million in cap space, a healthy amount that could grow with a few cuts. However, some of that money will get soaked up by Love’s inevitable massive extension.

The Packers desperately need an impact safety, especially considering incoming DC Hafley ran an abundance of cover 1 in college, which requires rotating safeties to disguise coverage.

This year’s NFL draft projects weak at the safety position, meaning the Packers will look to free agency to plug that hole. The Atlanta Falcons’ defense improved greatly this past season following the signing of Jessie Bates III and Green Bay will hope to follow suit.

The New York Giants’ Xavier McKinney can play in the box and deep, giving Hafley the flexibility required to run his scheme. Micah Hyde, Chauncey Gardner-Johnson, Jordan Whitehead, and Chuck Clark could all also be targeted, depending on whether they get franchise tagged.

The Packers could also find themselves looking at the running back market. With Dillon hitting free agency and Jones’ future up in the air, the Packers could be looking for a workhorse back.

The RB free agent market looks particularly strong with Derrick Henry, Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard, Saquon Barkley, Austin Ekeler, Cordarrelle Patterson, Gus Edwards, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and more all potential hitting the market. Swiping one of the top guys like Ekeler at a reasonable number and drafting another RB late would be a great outcome this offseason.

Cap space and NFL Draft situation

Green Bay controls their destiny this offseason

This year’s NFL draft projects especially strong at wide receiver and offensive line, two places the Packers will be elated to find cost-controlled players. Green Bay has an arsenal of draft assets to fill out their roster.

They own all their own picks besides a fifth-rounder, which they sent to the Buffalo Bills as part of the Rasul Douglas trade. They also own an extra second, third, fifth, sixth, and seventh round picks, thanks to trades and compensatory picks.

Since 2019, the Packers have traded up three times (Love, Savage, Amari Rodgers) to decent success. Would they package two of their second-rounders to move up for a blue-chip prospect? Based on their needs and this draft class, we would guess no.

There’s a great chance they can find an impact WR and OL between their first and two seconds. If anything, their 2023 draft class proves that they can find superb players without moving up. However, there is the argument that their WR group features plenty of talent but lacks a true star. With the extra draft capital, they could take a shot at Rome Odunze or Brian Thomas Jr.

All statistics courtesy of Pro Football Reference and all contract information courtesy of Spotrac unless stated otherwise.