Favorites & Betting Odds to Win NFL MVP

Highlights

• Despite winning the 2023 award in near-unanimous fashion, Lamar Jackson is fifth in the early running for the 2024 NFL MVP race.
• C.J. Stroud, Joe Burrow, and Josh Allen are among the contenders.
• Unsurprisingly, Patrick Mahomes is the early favorite in the 2024 NFL MVP race.

This past season, Baltimore Ravens quarterback Lamar Jackson won the NFL MVP race in a walk, receiving 49 of 50 first-place votes to become only the 11th player to win the coveted award on multiple occasions.

One of the 11 on that list, of course, is Patrick Mahomes, who not only has two NFL MVPs to his name but also now has three Super Bowl MVP trophies as well after leading his Kansas City Chiefs to an epic Super Bowl 58 victory over the San Francisco 49ers.

One might think this pair of two-time winners would be the two leading candidates in the 2024 NFL MVP race, but that’s not the case, at least for Jackson.

Early odds have Mahomes as the frontrunner at +600 (a $100 bet nets you $600 profit plus your original stake), with Josh Allen (+800), Joe Burrow (+900), and C.J. Stroud (+1100) occupying the next three slots. Jackson just cracked the top five at +1200.

Here’s a quick look at the top 10.

Unsurprisingly, the entire top 10 is occupied by quarterbacks, who’ve won NFL MVP each of the last 11 years.

In fact, the first non-QB on the list doesn’t appear until the 22nd slot, that being Niners running back Christian McCaffrey, who finished third in the voting this past season but currently has the same odds as Will Levis, Geno Smith, and Bryce Young at +10000.

So, while the award will likely go to a quarterback, dropping a few dollars on CMC wouldn’t be the worst investment in the world, given his tendency to put up monster numbers.

Superstar wideouts Justin Jefferson and Tyreek Hill are the next non-QBs on the list at +12500.

Here’s a closer look at the top five in the NFL MVP race.

1 Patrick Mahomes, QB, Kansas City Chiefs (+600)

Mahomes is the frontrunner to win his third NFL MVP

While Patrick Mahomes solidified himself as one of the greatest quarterbacks of all time in leading the Chiefs to a third Super Bowl win in five years, one could argue that his 2023 regular season proved just how great he’s become.

Think about this. In 16 games, Mahomes completed a career-high 67.2% of his passes for 4,183 yards with 27 touchdowns against 14 interceptions, earning him a seventh-place finish in the NFL MVP race. Now, for most quarterbacks, that would be considered a strong season.

But for Mahomes, it was considered a down year. That’s the standard he’s set for himself. What’s frightening for the rest of the league is that he hasn’t even hit his peak years yet. He’ll turn 29 in the early weeks of the 2024 season, which is roughly when quarterbacks enter their prime. Yes, history says he’s only going to get better. Scary, right?

Yes, the Chiefs will need to add some weapons at wide receiver alongside Rashee Rice, especially with superstar tight end Travis Kelce getting older. But Mahomes has already proven that he can put up big numbers and win with anyone, just as Tom Brady did for years.

While Mahomes still has a ways to go to catch TB12 as it pertains to Super Bowl rings, don’t be surprised if he matches Brady’s three NFL MVP trophies next February.

2 Josh Allen, QB, Buffalo Bills (+800)

Allen has finished in the top five of the NFL MVP race in three of the last four seasons

The 2023 campaign was quite the rollercoaster ride for Josh Allen and the Buffalo Bills.

Despite several strong performances from Allen, who often put up big numbers but struggled at times with turnovers, the Bills were just 6-6 through their first 12 games before reeling off five straight victories to win the AFC East for the fourth consecutive season.

And despite throwing a career-worst 18 interceptions, Allen still finished fifth in the NFL MVP race, completing 66.5% of his passes for 4,306 yards with 29 touchdowns, adding another 524 yards and 15 scores on the ground.

After disposing of the Pittsburgh Steelers in the Wild Card Round, Allen & Co. seemed primed to finally get past Patrick Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs in the Divisional Round, only to take a 27-24 loss.

One would think Allen will be more determined than ever heading into the 2024 campaign, and seeing how he’s finished in the top five of the MVP voting in three of the last four years, it’s not surprising to see him in this spot.

3 Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals (+900)

Burrow will look to bounce back after a lost season in 2023

Coming off a fourth-place finish in the NFL MVP race in 2022, Joe Burrow seemed set for another monster season with the Cincinnati Bengals in 2023.

But things didn’t go as planned.

In the Bengals’ season opener against the Browns, the 2019 Heisman Trophy winner threw for just 82 yards in a 21-point loss. And his first 300-yard game didn’t come until Week 5 against the Arizona Cardinals, at which point his season started to turn around.

But just as he was finding his groove and had led Cincy to four wins in five games, Burrow suffered a torn ligament in his right wrist in the first half of a Week 11 battle with Baltimore. The following day, the team announced he would miss the remainder of the season.

Burrow ultimately underwent surgery in late November and is expected to be 100% when the Bengals begin training camp. It’s a little surprising to see him this high on the list, but he’s certainly proven in the past that he knows how to come back strong from a season-ending injury.

4 C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans (+1100)

Stroud was a near-unanimous pick for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year

To say C.J. Stroud had a fantastic first season for the Houston Texans would be an understatement, as the Ohio State product had one of the best rookie campaigns of any quarterback in NFL history.

While many rookie signal-callers struggle, Stroud went the other way, completing 63.9% of his passes for 4,108 yards with 23 touchdowns against just five interceptions, leading the league in touchdown/interception ratio. Like Jackson in the NFL MVP race, the 22-year-old won Offensive Rookie of the Year honors in a landslide, earning 48 of 50 first-place votes.

Not only did Stroud help the Texans improve upon their 3-13-1 record from 2022, he led Houston to a 10-7 record and the AFC South title. He then set several records in Houston’s 45-14 blowout victory over the Cleveland Browns in the Wild Card Round and had his team tied with Jackson’s Ravens at halftime during the Divisional Round.

While it’s a bit of a shock to see Stroud ahead of Lamar in the early stages of the NFL MVP race, it’s certainly not a surprise to see him in the top five.

5 Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens (+1200)

Jackson is the youngest two-time NFL MVP of all time

At age 27, Lamar Jackson became the youngest player in league history to win multiple NFL MVP awards, besting Green Bay Packers legend Brett Favre by 73 days.

And given his overall numbers during the 2023 regular season, combined with the fact that he was the quarterback of the team with the league’s best record, his win shouldn’t have shocked anyone. It is a little shocking, however, that he’s only fifth in the early running of the 2024 NFL MVP race.

Jackson was dynamic for the Ravens this past season, setting career-highs in completion percentage (67.2%) and passing yards (3,678) while tossing 24 touchdown passes against just seven interceptions.

He also amassed 821 rushing yards, the most of any quarterback, led the entire league in yards per carry (5.5), and scored five rushing touchdowns. The 2023 campaign marked the second time Jackson finished with 3,000+ passing yards and 800+ rushing yards, making him the first player in NFL history to do so twice.

All stats courtesy of Pro Football Reference unless stated otherwise. NFL MVP race odds courtesy of BetMGM.